The intermediate price of RMB (7.2762, -0.0099, -0.14%) was reported at 7.1856, which was raised by 27 points.
The probability of maintaining interest rates in the Fed in September is 80.5%
CME "Fed Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate in September of 5.25%-5.50%is 80.5%, and the probability of rating 25 basis points to 5.50%-5.75%is 19.5%;The probability is 42.3%, the probability of accumulating a total of 25 basis points is 48.4%, and the probability of accumulating interest rates of 50 basis points is 9.2%.
Zhongjin: The US dollar index (104.1196, -0.0788, -0.08%) will still be at a relatively strong level in the next month
This week's market will focus on the August employment data, July PCE inflation data, and euro (1.0802, 0.0009, 0.08%) in August inflation data.Considering that the US dollar index has rebounded for 6 consecutive weeks, we do not rule out the possibility of weakening the temporary weakening of the US dollar.On the one hand, employment data and PCE data in the United States may further show that the tightening degree of tightening in the US labor market has slowed down inflation. On the other hand, the implementation of China's real estate regulation and optimization policy is also expected to improve the expectations of the non -US economy.However, considering that the U.S. economy still shows a certain amount of toughness on high interest rates, it may be difficult for U.S. debt yields to go down in a short period of time.In non -American economies, European and China's economic expectations still need to be further restored.Therefore, we believe that the US dollar index will still be at a relatively strong level in the next month.
