Although the data shows that the core inflation in the United States has remained declined, today's rise in oil prices may further cause inflation and rise, and the market is still expected that the Fed will raise interest rates again in May.During the Asian transaction period on Monday (April 3), the US dollar against major currencies rose, and the US dollar index was empty and opened, and the high point high was 102.59.Investors are waiting for the March non -agricultural employment report that will be announced on Friday, which will bring new trading guidance to the US dollar index.
Last Friday (March 31), the increase in February Individual Consumer Price Index (PCE) announced by the United States continued to slow down, consolidating the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle.However, the decline of the core inflation data did not cause the US dollar index to suffer. The US dollar index rose back on Friday and re -stood on the 102 mark.However, from the long -term perspective, the US dollar index weeks, moon lines, and seasonal lines have recorded declines.
Fed 3 and New York Fed Chairman Williams said on March 31 that inflation is still a primary issue for the Federal Reserve, and is also paying close attention to the credit status of the bank after the bank crisis.He said that he will pay special attention to the evolution of economic growth, employment and inflation prospects, reaching the Fed's future monetary policy on economic data.
Williams predicts that this year's consumer price index (CPI) will drop to about 3.25%, and then approach the Fed's goal in the next two years.At the same time, the US economy is expected to grow mild this year, and the growth rate will accelerate next year, but his expected unemployment rate next year will increase from 3.6%in February to 4.5%.
At the same time, the Boston Fed Chairman Collins and Williams are similar to. He said that in terms of inflation, there are still many jobs to do it. Decision makers will need to pay close attention to data to evaluate the turbulence of the banking industry.The degree of influence.
MACRO analysis pointed out, "In September last year and March of this year, the US dollar index was hit by two heavy blows from interest rate prospects.The hawk to raise interest rates many times that the Fed may stop raising interest rates immediately, thereby weakening the US dollar index."
According to the FedWatch tools of the CME Institute, Federal Fund interest rate futures investors expect that the probability of suspending interest rate hikes in the May meeting is 51.6%, and the possibility of rating 25 basis points to 5%-5.25%is 48.4%.
It can be seen that the current market's probability of raising interest rates in the Fed in May is "equivalent to". Futures contracts linked to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates still bet that the Fed will reverse the policy soon, and the interest rate level at the end of the year will be lower than the beginning of the year.Essence
MACRO analysis pointed out, "From this before the Fed's monetary policy statement and chairman Powell's speech, the recent economic data of the United States, we believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve’ s interest rate hike in May is very high. In view of this, there is still a certain support below the US dollar index.There is a demand for rebound in the short -term.
On Friday (April 7), the US Department of Labor will announce the third non -agricultural employment report this year. Investors can use it to understand whether a series of interest rate hikes in the United States will work.Earlier, both non -agricultural report data showed the popularity of the labor market —— January and February, the number of employees increased by 504,000 and 311,000, respectively, and the number of new employment people had exceeded market expectations for 11 consecutive months.
At present, the market is estimated that the number of non -agricultural employment in March will increase 240,000, and the unemployment rate will remain at 3.6%.If the employment data is strong, it will further increase the expectations of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike in May, and the US dollar index is expected to rise; if the number of non -agricultural employment is less than expected, it means that it is not far from the interest rate cut period. The US dollar index is expected to be expectedLow.
Before the Federal Reserve's May interest meeting, the March non -agricultural report announced this week was the last key employment report that central bank officials could see.
In addition, investors need to pay attention to the US market this week will be closed due to Jesus' daily holidays, but non -agricultural employment reports will be released normally.This means that the market is weak, and the foreign exchange market will be the only trading market, which may amplify the volatility of the US dollar index.
At the same time, before the announcement of the non -agricultural employment report in March, the ADP private enterprise employment position report, known as the "small non -agricultural", will be announced. It is expected that the growth rate of employment positions in private enterprises in March will also slow down, an increase of 210,000indivual.There is also an employment data this week. The vacancy data released on Tuesday is expected to decrease by 324,000 in February in February.
