This article LTG
GoldRock will analyze whether the European Central Bank will raise interest rates in the near future ~
Judging from the data released by the European Union Statistics on Friday, the consumer price index (HICP) in the euro zone increased year -on -year (6.9%) fell exceeded the expected medium value (7.1%) of the previous market research.The main reason for the sharp decline in inflation is the sharp decline in energy prices.
However, it is not balanced to fall into the euro area. At least the inflation data of Germany and France at least the first two major economies of Germany and France is not as good as market expectations.More importantly, the core inflation of the euro zone removing the price factors such as food and energy prices in March continued to rise year -on -year, reaching a record high; the monthly increase of core inflation (1.2%) was greatly higher than the previous month (0.8%)No experts generally expected (0.6%) fell.
Due to bank risk incidents in the United States and Switzerland, although the European Central Bank in mid -March, although the promise of 50 basis points raised interest rates, no longer clearly promised to further raise interest rates.This allows investors to adjust the prediction of interest rate prospects for the euro zone.Many institutional investors now expect the European Central Bank to make interest rate cuts as early as 2024.However, the core inflation data makes the European Central Bank face a dilemma, and the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates in the short term is very high.
In fact, the destruction of high inflation to the economy of the euro zone is obvious.Due to the decline in purchasing power, consumption in the euro zone is continuing to shrink.Due to high inflation, the German retail industry is expected to have the largest decline since the global financial crisis in 2009 in 2009 -after adjustment is adjusted by inflation, sales are expected to decrease by 3%.
The European Central Bank's continued tightening policy has also caused some experts to worry.Sebastian Dulin, the head of the German Macroeconomic and Commercial Period Institute (IMK), predicts that the decline in the price of energy and intermediate consumer goods this year will inhibit core inflation.The European Central Bank continues to "over -" increase interest rates and will exacerbate the distortion of the financial market.The expert warned that in 2008, the European Central Bank raised interest rates two months before the Rayman brothers' bankruptcy and the global financial crisis.
This week, with the gradual stabilization of bank stocks, the European stock market has retired significantly, and the German DAX index has almost regained all the declines since the outbreak of the Silicon Valley bank crisis.s level.After the euro area's inflation data was announced, it did not slow down the rebound of the European stock market.
