Today, LTG GOLDROCK will share with you the theoretical classification and theoretical points of the international loan theory ~
Theoretical classification
Ge Xun's theory
For the first time, Ge Xun's theory explained the changes in foreign exchange supply and demand from the perspective of international revenue and expenditure and analyzed the reason for the fluctuations of the exchange rate . Thereforea> or foreign exchange supply and demand.This theory prevails in the Golden Bands of the First World War Monetary System .From the current perspective, international revenue and expenditure is still one of the most direct and important basic factors that affect the exchange rate change.But on the other hand, international borrowing has the limitations of its historical, and it does not explain the basis of the exchange rate decision and other important influencing factors.
The most important theory
Internationally borrowing is the main theory of the change of foreign exchange rates before the prevailing of the golden -based system .The main basis of its theory comes from the discussion of the international trade and foreign exchange on classical economics .International borrowing is also known as foreign exchange supply and demand, which was officially proposed in the book "The Theory of Foreign Exchange" by British economist Gosen in 1861.
Theoretical points
1. The change in the exchange rate is determined by the creditor's rights and debts of one country to other countries.The reasoning process is as follows: The difference between the current project of a country and the capital project constitutes the international lending difference between one country .If in a certain period of time, a country's international income and expenditure China Debt is greater than the debt, that is, it constitutes an international loan over, and the amount exceeds is the net creditor's right to other countries; ifThe debt in the international income and expenditure of one country is greater than the debt, which constitutes the country's international revenue and expenditure over. The amount of exceeding the country is the net debt of the country to other countries.The excess and entry of international lending is the most fundamental reason to determine the inflow or outflow of a country, and the inflow or outflow of funds directly affects the rise and fall of the country's currency exchange rate .This is because currencies are circulating in the international market in the form of a commodity , and its price rising is bound to be restricted by the law of supply and demand , and the supply and demand relationship of the currency of one country in the international market It is closely related to the country's international lending.In short, the exchange rate change is caused by foreign exchange supply and demand, while the changes in foreign exchange supply and demand originated from international lending .Therefore, Gosen believes that international lending relations are the key to determining the rising exchange rate of a country.
2. International lending not only causes the input and output of the goods, but also the stocks, bonds buying and selling, profit and donation receivables, capital transactions, etc. will also lead to the emergence of international lending.To this end, Goson divides international lending into two types: fixed borrowing refers to borrowing that has formed a loan relationship, but not entering the actual receipt phase;Payment borrowing.He believes that only the changes in the lending loan will affect foreign exchange supply and demand.The reason is that fixed lending does not immediately generate cash payment.At this time, if the flow of loans remain unchanged, the fixed borrowing changes and the international lending is in a state of overwhelming.The country's currency does not increase the current external traffic, and the exchange rate will not rise immediately.Similarly, if the international lending is over due to changes in fixed lending, the excess amount does not equal to the cash that is immediately collected, and the country's currency will not increase because of this, then the country's currency exchange rate It will not fall.For example, when a fixed borrowing increases the state of international borrowing , it is generally possible to borrow short -term capital to balance the international borrowing difference to prevent the country's currency outflow.In this way, the increase in debt has stopped the depreciation of the local currency .And when the decrease in fixed borrowing lend leads to the timeout of international lending, the funds should be internal, but if the country does not recover its deserved claims in time , but invests in the debt country , the country's currency has some currencies.It may depreciate.
