On July 10, the New York Fed Micro Economic Data Center released the June consumer expected investigation (SCE).
According to the specific data, the interviewee's expected median value of the inflation rate in the next year is 3.8%, which has decreased for the third consecutive month.Essence
Fed officials have repeatedly mentioned that the expectations of inflation expectations are the key driving factor in the current inflation.Since the Fed in New York, the highest value of this indicator was 6.8%recorded in June last year, which means that the short -term inflation rate is expected to fall 3 percentage points.
The data also shows that the interviewee's expected median value of the inflation rate in the next three years is 3%, which is consistent with the readings in May; the median value of the inflation rate in the next 5 years is also 3%, which is increased from the previous month.0.3 percentage points.
The trend of a significant decline in short -term inflation reflects the role of the Fed's high interest rate. Before the June monetary policy conference, the bank had raised interest rates 10 times in a row since March 2022, with a cumulative interest rate hike of 500 basis points.
At the June meeting, the Federal Reserve has been suspended for the first time in more than a year, and explained that "this will allow officials to have more time to evaluate the progress of the economy in achieving the goals of the maximum employment and price stability."
However, in terms of economic data, the US CPI recorded 4%in May, and it has also returned to the lowest level since April 2021. At the same time, non -agricultural reports also show that the growth of employment growth in the United States has shown signs of slowing down.
Some industry experts believe that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates like a "dot -to -line".David, Chief Economist, Switzerland
Kohl believes that as U.S. inflation is in a sustainable downside, it is expected that this year will not be possible, and there is no need to further raise interest rates.
Although Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized that "there is still a long way to go to achieve 2%of the inflation goals", KOHL pointed out that, in view of the long -term lag of monetary policy on the economy, the rate of interest rate hikes again during the year will improve the results of inflation in 2023 in 2023.No effect.
Housing prices may become an uplink risk of inflation
In terms of 1 -year inflation expectations, the median expectations of gasoline and food prices have declined, but the expectations of medical, higher education and rent have risen.In addition, interviewees expect house prices to rise by 2.9%in the next year, and there will be signs of accelerated rise, which may complicate the Fed's efforts to fight inflation.
Although the Fed has strived to take measures to slow down the economy, the real estate market is gradually recovering.This may mean that the Fed will have to continue to raise interest rates and maintain a high level for a longer period of time, so that the inflation rate will fall to the Fed's 2%goal.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a June press conference, "We now see that the housing market is bottoming out and may even rise." The Dallas Fed Chairman Logan also mentioned last week that "the rebound of the real estate industry will becomePotential risk sources of price pressure in the future.
