The width policies and expansion fiscal policies implemented by major economies in the world are quite effective in the short term.In the urgent princes, we must consider both the restoration of the balance sheet and the sustainability of economic growth.Earlier, the global economy had a tendency to "Japan", which was manifested as "low growth, low interest rates, low inflation, high debt, high leverage", but now it has evolved into a "high interest rate, high inflation, high debt, high leverage" pattern.It can be seen that macro policy management is difficult.
Historical experience and reality have proved that the expansion of the balance sheet is not a long -term plan. Promoting the actual variables such as the real economy, corporate investment and residents' savings, etc., otherwise it will be caught in the height of the "debt abduction economy + market abduction central bank"EssenceThe complex structure of the modern economy has shaped the central bank as a huge "financial Livatt". While trying to maintain economic and financial stability, it also creates new instability.Judging from the current situation of the central bank, monetary policy wants to return to normalization.The solution may not be at the level of monetary policy, but whether the global economy can restart the real growth.
In recent years, reflection of unconventional monetary policy has become the focus of the academic circles. The representatives are Japanese -American economists -Gu Chaotian, as chief economist of the Institute of Nomura Comprehensive Research Institute and the Japanese government economic adviser, the earliest participation in Japan"Five -Year Economic Plan" economist.The Japanese economy has experienced the collapse of monetary policy, real estate bubbles and crisis of population aging. Almost all problems can be reflected in modern countries and regions.
The currency supply during the great period of Japan depends on the fiscal policy of the Japanese government.
The easing policy provides a lot of liquidity for enterprises and residents, but due to the obstruction of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the problem of air rotation and liquidity traps of funds also appear.Excessive liabilities and high leverage.In history, Japan's experience shows that the economic bubble will directly lead to the decline of the balance sheet, and accelerate the restoration of the balance sheet to become more tricky. The pain is the orderly clearing of the market and the positive cycle of debt.It is also necessary to promote the relationship between reasonable savings, asset allocation and consumption expenditure.
At present, the pressure on the width policy of Japan is not small: on the one hand, it is the problem of long -term economic growth, the domestic market is not strong, and the problem of shrinking the problem cannot be resolved. On the other hand, the cost of exit width policy is huge.To sum up Japan's experience and lessons, it is seen that the appropriate economic stimulus policy is desirable, but the scope, scale and policy implementation of policy applications are very critical, and missed opportunities will also increase the difficulty of recovery growth.
At present, the "Japaneseization" of the global economy has not ended. Many traditional developed economies have successively experienced problems such as low economic growth and aging population. The gap between the rich and the poor has also expanded.During the period, it was more prominent.Due to the complexity of economic growth, any single policy cannot solve all economic problems.In the 1990s, Japan has repeatedly implemented a large -scale stimulus policy, but the effect is unsatisfactory and it is difficult to reverse the decline of economic recession.To truly solve the dilemma of growth, a thorough market -oriented reform must be carried out, including the short -sighted problem of eradicating decision -making, the growth momentum of growth, and increasing scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading.
