According to the US "Fortune" magazine reported on May 10, the US billionaire and well -known investor Stan Druckenmler warned at a investment meeting on the 9th that the US economy was at the edge of decline, or "hardLand.
Stan Druckenmler said that economic recession will happen this quarter, even earlier than he had expected.He said that the decline in retail sales and the turbulence of US regional banks prompted him to accelerate the prediction of economic recession.
It is reported that Stan Drucken Miller defines the "hard landing" as an unemployment rate of more than 5%, a decrease in corporate profits at least 20%, and an increase in bankruptcy rate.
He pointed out that many factors including the decline in retail sales and regional bank turbulence have prompted him to predict the economic recession faster.
"I'm not predicting a worse situation than 2008," Druckenmler said.However, to be an excellent risk manager, "If you can't keep an open mind for very bad things, it is too naive."
Druckenmler warned that with the hard landing of the US economy, corporate profits may decrease at least 20%, and the unemployment rate increased from the current 3.4%to more than 5%, and the number of corporate bankruptcy would increase.
Druckenmire also talked about the current debt limit crisis facing the United States.
"The debt limit debate is really frustrated," he said."I hope we will not have a technical breach of contract," he said, otherwise it will lead to "market events".
He said that although the US dollar world reserve currency status has given the United States a "privilege", it may also allow the government to adopt a "very short -sighted policy."He warned that the reckless fiscal and monetary policy may be equivalent to "digging an increasingly larger hole."
"When you reserve currency, you can continue to dig your own grave," he said, because "we are not restricted."
Drucken Miller said last month that in his career's most unpredictable period in his career, short -term US dollar was his only confident transaction.The legendary investor latest said that although he is indeed short -term US dollars, it is not very large.He also revealed that he held gold and silver.
In Drucken Miller, it is now a period of challenging, and it is difficult to make accurate economic predictions.However, he is very optimistic about investment opportunities in the next few years.
"In the next few years, you will have an incredible opportunity. There are many differences in the industry, and you must keep your capital before they appear." He said.
He predicts that as the economy recovers from the decline, the copper industry, real estate industry, biotechnology companies, and companies focusing on artificial intelligence may become a big beneficiary.
Drucken Miller holds Nvidia and Microsoft stocks."Artificial intelligence is very, very real, and may be as influential as the Internet." He said that artificial intelligence may eventually give birth to companies worth $ 100 billion.
