Although the US dollar fell on Monday, analysts expect that the spread will continue to bring upward pressure on the US dollar and warn investors not to short the US dollar.
Win Thin, the global exchange market director of Brown Brothers Harriman & CO.Any changes in trends. "
The US dollar index (104.6390, 0.1204, 0.12%) is still not far from the peak of this year, and the economic prospects for the appreciation of the US dollar are still intact.
The recent sharp rise in the US dollar is that the market is expected to maintain high interest rates to prevent inflation from rising again.The interest rates in major Asia and European countries have been low, but with the slowdown of growth in Asia and Europe, this difference has prompted speculators to transfer funds to the United States to obtain higher returns.
Any short -term trend in the US dollar may also be reversed due to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced on Wednesday, which may prompt the Fed to re -consider policy trends.THIN said: "It is dangerous to short the US dollar before the data is released this week."
According to the "Fed Observation" tool of the Zhishang Institute (CME), the Federal Reserve will follow the probability of 93%according to soldiers next week, and the probability of 25 basis points in November is about 38%.In addition to the CPI on Wednesday, the United States will also announce the latest producer price index (PPI) and retail sales data on Thursday.
Even those who are optimistic about the Japanese yen are advised to act carefully.UBS Global Wealth Management stated on a report on Monday: "We don't recommend that the current yen is a new yen against the US dollar."It may lead to the volatility of the dollar.
The Bank of Japan has always been a alien in the global central bank. Especially since the Fed started the interest rate hike cycle last March last year, when other central banks have tightened monetary policy, the Bank of Japan has always maintained a super loose policy position and puts up the yen.
