In 2023, the RMB exchange rate rising and falling does not depend on the strength of the US dollar and the spread of China and the United States, but it is mainly related to the restart of the Chinese economy after the epidemic.
First, the correlation between the weakening of the RMB and the US dollar index is significantly weakened.Analysis of the correlation between the middle price of the RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index of the RMB exchange rate in Phase 1 shows that in 2022, the correlation coefficient of the two is 0.898, showing a strong positive correlation;For weak correlation.In the first half of the year, the US dollar index fell 0.1%, the intermediate price and closing price of the RMB exchange rate fell 3.6%and 4.3%, respectively. The RMB exchange rate index of the Chinese foreign exchange trading center fell 2.0%.
Second, the breakthroughs of several important points of the RMB exchange rate are related to the fundamental changes in China's economic fundamentals.On May 17, the transaction price of the RMB on the shore fell below 7.0, and the main trigger factor was the April economic data released last day.On May 31, the closing price of the shore fell below 7.10, mainly because the PMI data of the manufacturing industry was released on the morning of the morning.On June 26, the middle price and closing price of the shore fell below 7.20, mainly because after the central bank's unexpected interest rate cuts on June 13, the benchmark interest rate and market interest rate of the RMB went down all the way, and the spread between China and the United States had further expanded.
Third, the radio fluid of the RMB surpasses the US dollar index.In the first half of 2023, the middle price of the RMB exchange rate was 6.7130 (February 2), up 3.7%from the maximum cumulative at the end of 2022; as low as 7.2258 to 1 (June 30), the maximum amplitude of the maximum amplitude from the previous high was 7.6%.The largest amplitude of the year in 2021 was 3.5%.During the same period, among the eight major reserve currencies disclosed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the maximum amplitude of the RMB ranked fourth, exceeding the US dollar index (4.6%), which is equivalent to the average maximum of the other seven major reserve currency exchange rates.The amplitude (101%) is the first time since the exchange rate in early 1994.
