On August 30, the Asian City In the early morning, the US dollar index (103.5830, 0.1078, 0.10%) was narrowed and fluctuated, and it is currently trading near 103.57.The US dollar index fell on Tuesday and closed down 0.52%to 103.47. Because the data showed that the vacancies of jobs in the United States in July were declined, investors are waiting for more comprehensive labor market data in the August non -agricultural employment report that will be released this week.
On the last day of July, the vacancies of the positions of labor demand in the United States decreased by 338,000 to 8.827 million, the lowest level since March 2021.
U.S. economic data shows toughness when facing interest rate hikes, but investors are still alerting to any signs of showing the impact of currency tightening lag.
Investors have raised bets that the Fed may continue to raise interest rates, or keep high interest rates in a longer period of time. In the case of tight employment market, the Fed tries to reduce the inflation rate to nearly 2%of targets.
According to Zhishang Institute Fedwatch tools, the market believes that the Fed's possibility of maintaining interest rates in September is 87%, but the possibility of raising interest rates at the November meeting has risen.At present, it is believed that the possibility of interest rate hikes in November is 47%, which is lower than 62%of Monday, but higher than 46%a week ago.
Fed Chairman Powell said on Friday that it may need to further raise interest rates to cool down, but it is also promised to act carefully at the upcoming meeting.
The price report of the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price (PCE) and the August employment report announced on Friday this week is the focus of the US economy and strength.
Earlier on Tuesday, the dollar against the yen (146.19, 0.2900, 0.20%) briefly touched the nearly 10 months high of 147.37, and then fell due to employment data.The US dollar closed 0.46%against the yen on Tuesday to 145.86.
The Loose Currency policy of the Bank of Japan is still a alien in the global central bank, even if it is slowly withdrawing the yield curve control policy.
Euro (1.0864, -0.0014, -0.13%) closed up 0.56%against the US dollar to 1.0879.The euro area inflation data announced on Thursday may be the key to whether the European Central Bank raised interest rates at the September meeting, and the latter may set the tone for the recent trend of the euro.
The currency market continues to adapt to the scene of "maintaining higher interest rates for a longer time", and has increased bets on the tightening policy of the European Central Bank, and set the probability of 25 basis points in September to 50%.The trader's bet on September 14th's policy was raised at 12.5 basis points. This is the highest value since the euro zone and the weak PMI data of Germany on August 23.The currency market bets that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 20 basis points before the end of the year.Tuesday's pound (1.2626, -0.0018, -0.14%) closed up 0.34%against the US dollar to 1.2643.The growth rate of wages is innovative, and the British Bank of UK's interest rate hike expected to rise in September to help boost the pound.
In the second quarter, the average annual salary of the British excluding dividends recorded 7.8%. This is the highest annual growth rate since the comparison record in 2001, and it is also higher than the previously repaired data of 7.5%and the expected 7.4%expected by economists.EssenceAnalysis believes that this is because many employers retain or attract employees by raising their wages.The data further promotes Britain's high inflation rate.In addition, the annual revenue growth rate of employees, including bonuses, has also accelerated further, reaching 8.2%, which is the fastest growth rate besides the epidemic period.
During the same period, there were some new signs of cooling in the employment market. The unemployment rate increased from 4.0%to 4.2%, and the rise rate was higher than the UK's estimates.The Bank of England has previously warned that salary growth is too strong. After 14 consecutive interest rate hikes, it may need to raise interest rates further.
At present, traders have once again incorporated the possibility of a significant interest rate hike, and the currency market hinted that the possibility of the Bank of England's interest rate hikes in September was almost close to one -third.
