As of the year of March next year, the growth of the US employment population is expected to weaker than the current data -according to the quarterly employment and salary census (QCEW) estimation, it will reduce about 500,000 employment positions compared with the current level.Morgan Chase Economist Daniel Silver estimates that the preliminary amendments to the U.S. government on the benchmark data on Wednesday will reduce the total number of employment in March next year, which is nearly 500,000, that is, a monthly job of about 40,000 in 12 months.QCEW data in the first quarter will also be announced on Wednesday, but from the current data, the employment growth of non -agricultural employment reports is stronger than the QCEW data implied.
However, even if the increase in non -agricultural employment population is modified down, the average increase will still be maintained at a strong level of about 300,000 per month.Therefore, the revised data may not fundamentally change the view of economists on the health of the labor market."Although we expect the preliminary estimation of the US Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics to show that employment growth is not as strong as the initial report, the correction amplifier is not as large as the preliminary estimation of the US Labor Statistical Bureau of Labor Statistics.Degree."
Last year, the employment report released by the US government has been unexpectedly unexpected by economists, and the number of employment has exceeded expectations.These data are also a key reason for the Federal Reserve's steady interest rate hike, because the strong employment market will promote wage growth, which will promote inflation to a certain extent, and policy makers are anxious to curb inflation.
Every month, the US Labor Statistics Agency will issue a series of industry employment estimates based on the feedback from employer samples.In each new monthly employment report, the data of the first two months is usually corrected because more enterprises will submit salary bill data.The US Statistics Bureau then announces a more accurate employment data every quarter called quarterly employment and salary census (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages).This data is the sample of statistics than the non -agricultural data (ESTABLISHED SURVEY) that we usually see (670,000 VS 11 million institutions), so the data accuracy will be higher. QCEW data is based on unemployment insurance tax records in various states, covering it, covering it, covering it, covering it, covering the state of unemployment insurance, covering it.Almost all jobs in the United States.But the problem is that the data is slow.
QCEW data in the first quarter will also be announced on Wednesday, but from the current data, the employment growth of non -agricultural employment reports is stronger than the QCEW data implied.This helps explain why economists expect the preliminary benchmark correction of employment data to show the slowdown of employment growth.The Minutes of the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting showed that some Fed officials pointed out this difference.However, for Munoz, "the information conveyed may not change; the labor market continues to be steadily normal."
The toughness of the labor market is the key to the recovery of the United States. Economists have been paying close attention to the weak signs of the labor market.Employment growth has gradually slowed down, but it still shows that the demand for labor is strong.Bloomberg economist Stuart Paul said QCEW data may confirm the long -term view that the labor market is weaker than media reports.But he said, "Those who have always been bluntly 'labor markets' tightness' may be shocked."
Standard Chartered Bank Economist Steve Englander estimates that this data may be revised down 650,000, most of which have been concentrated in the past few quarters.Englander said that this will show that "the employment market is far inferior to the factors that support the Fed's tightening policy in recent quarters, which will reduce the pressure of further interest rate hikes."
Economists believe that one of the reasons why monthly non-agricultural employment data is stronger than QCEW data is the so-called "establishment-closure" data adjustment.In any month, new companies have opened, and some companies are closed.The Labor Statistics Bureau uses historical data to adjust this situation in different industries in the sample.
