On August 9, the People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that the intermediate price of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1588 yuan, a reduction of 23 basis points from the previous value.This is also the second consecutive day of the intermediate price of the RMB to the US dollar exchange rate, with a cumulative decrease of more than 200 basis points.
Recently, the RMB has weakened the exchange rate of the US dollar.From the perspective of more inter -US dollar exchange rates that reflect the expectations of international investors, Wind data shows that the lowest exploration in the market on August 8th was 7.2513, a new low since July 10.On August 9, the offshore RMB's exchange rate of the US dollar was reported at 7.2368; as of 16:00, the highest report was reported at 7.2121, and the lowest report was 7.2442.
In response to the recent trend of the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar, CITIC Securities Chief Economist clearly said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that in external factors, the growth of total domestic production value in the second quarter of the United States, and employment growth in July slightly in July.It is not as expected but the unemployment rate is still low, which shows that the US labor market and the US economy are still tough in the short term, and then support the US dollar index (102.5237, 0.0366, 0.04%) slightly rebound; domestic aspects, various stable growth policies have been introduced or have been introduced or have successively introduced them.It helps to boost economic expectations, but the fundamentals are still weak in the short term, and the differentiation of the Chinese and US currency policies is superimposed. The support of internal factors for the RMB exchange rate needs to be further prominent.
Judging from the recent trend of the US dollar index, after falling below 100 on July 13th, it began to rebound significantly.Wind data shows that as of August 8th, the US dollar index has risen by 1.93%since July 13.On August 9, the US dollar index fluctuated around 102.
Everbright Bank Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department, told the Securities Daily that although the RMB has repeatedly reused the US dollar exchange rate trend since July, the overall two -way fluctuation pattern was presented, and the market operation remained stable.
Zhou Maohua expects that the exchange rate of the RMB to the US dollar is expected to continue to fluctuate near a reasonable balance.At present, domestic economic activities have gradually recovered, macro -policy support has been increasing, the economy has steadily recovered, cross -border capital flows orderly flow, and the fundamentals of international revenue and expenditure will remain balanced, which will provide strong support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate.
Obviously, with the continuous increase in policies on macroeconomic, capital markets, and exchange rates in the second half of the year, the market is expected to stabilize and recover the domestic economic expectations. In terms of medium and long -term dimensions, the RMB exchange rate will be strongly supported by the fundamental aspect.
