Hike
in May and Stay Away.- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates at 25bp at the May meeting that it might be able to take it out. Is the problem whether this round of interest rate hikes has increased enough or more?
Given that the Fed has been facing the re -balance of credit tightening and inflation pressure since the banking crisis, the Fed has released the following signals at this conference:
The Fed's tendency to think that it is enough, because credit tightening can replace interest rate hikes to suppress demand and inflation.Therefore, this meeting no longer retains that "some additional policy tightening may be appropriate" interest rate forward -looking guidance, and then Powell said at the meeting that "in principle, we do not need to increase interest rates to such a high" to echo this.
The possibility of subsequent interest rate hikes is not zero.Although interest rates are at a limited level, due to high inflation and stable employment, Powell said that "the Fed is continuously evaluating whether the interest rate is sufficiently limited."High, we will not cut interest rates. "
Credit tightening on the macroeconomic impact is still yet to be observed.As the flow of large bank deposits has stabilized, the Fed's recognition of the overall situation of the banking industry has improved, but as the bank loan standards and terms have been further tightened after the banking industry crisis, the Fed still needs to spend some time to evaluate credit to tighten the domestic economy to the domestic economy.The lagging effect.
It can be seen that it is similar to the situation when most of the historical suspension of interest rate hikes. This time, the Fed is still "reserved" in attitude.
Since the interest rate hike has come to an end, the focus of the market's follow -up attention is undoubtedly from "suspension of interest rate hikes" to how far is it from "cutting interest rate cuts"?In this regard, we have inspected the eight Fed since 1980 from the suspension of interest rate hikes to starting interest rate cuts.
Depending on the different interest rates of the economy, the reasons for cutting interest rates are mainly summarized as two types: preventive interest rate cuts and crisis interest rate cuts.And there are also differences between the two different reasons from the suspension to interest rate cuts.
One is the preventive interest rate reduction after adding enough. Due to the limited tightening effect, the economy has not declined, and the interest rate cut is limited.The purpose of preventing interest rate cuts is to hedge the risk of economic downward in a timely manner. After the suspension of interest rate hikes, the distance from interest rate cuts is short, and the interest rate reduction rate is small.In 1995 and 1997, not only did the interest rate hike began 5 months after the interest rate hike, but also began to cut interest rates, and the interest rate cut was only 0.75%.
The other is the crisis of interest rate cuts after adding more. The previous tightening effect has exacerbated economic imbalances. As shown in Figure 6, the Federal Reserve will make an emergency significant interest rate cut before the recession.The main reason behind the crisis-type interest rate cut is the imbalance of economic structure, and then 3-4 months accompanied by recession.In this case, the distance from the suspension of interest rate hikes to the rate reduction has a long distance, and the interest rate reduction is large.
The crisis of 2007 was a typical representative, and the interest rate cut at 15 months later.Under the excessive currency tightening in the early stage, the supply and demand of the real estate market continued to be unbalanced.After the foam pierced, it caused a major recession.Subsequently cut interest rates to zero interest rate level.
Taken together, the Fed will generally "actively lay out" the scene of "adding enough" and "passive pots" in the "additional" scenario.the latter.Specifically, after the suspension of interest rate hikes, the average of half a year starts to cut interest rates.Observed from the degree of interest rate hikes, if it is enough, the average rate of interest rate reduction is started for 5 months.However, if it is increased, the interest rate reduction is an average of 8 months from suspension to interest rate cuts.
Compared with the current situation of the United States, it is more similar to the first situation.Although the "consensus" of the market betting in the second quarter of the second quarter is heating up, the decline in the next three months should not happen under the benchmark situation.The first is that the labor market is stable, and the consumption recovery momentum is still continuing; the second is that the long -term interest rate is 4%falling, which drives the mortgage loan interest rate to decline, and the real estate market stabilizes; the third is that the banking industry crisis is insufficient.According to previous reports, this is a liquidity issue that has not yet triggered credit risk.Based on the above three reasons, the risk of decline during the year is limited.However, it is worth noting that the current inflation pressure is not solved, and the suspension time will be longer than the historical average.Therefore, it will support the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates "longer and longer" after this interest rate hike.The recession and interest rate cuts appeared simultaneously until 2024.
