Today, the Turkish central bank sells gold and accepted Licha in sales. Although it aims to alleviate the pressure of the spot market for the local currency, the Turkish Central Bank has sold gold reserves of the country in the past 7 weeks to reduce the country's gold reserves by 9%.Especially before the Turkish national elections, they seek to protect themselves from inflation or currency depreciation, and the local gold demand is full of complexity.
Earlier February in early February, Turkey ’s impact on a severe earthquake, thereby issuing a provision for the Turkish government that its mandatory suspension of purchasing gold from abroad was one of the biggest drags of Turkey’ s fiscal fiscal because of the expansion of Turkish trade deficit.According to data from the World Gold Association, last year, Turkey was the largest gold buyer in the global central bank. The country's gold holdings were at a record level before the earthquake.
The main reason for the Turkish people to buy gold, so that the central bank's selling gold reserves is that the country's severe inflation, its inflation rate is more than 50%for a long time, and last year it exceeded 80%.From this, the rising international gold prices come from Turkey's factors to stimulate strong stimulation. It is expected that the price of gold will rise again.
The first is that high international inflation is to stimulate the environment for the rise of gold.
At present, the trend of inflation in major countries in the world is the main reason for the logic of international gold prices.Among them, British inflation rose continuously to the two -digit level, forcing the British Central Bank to raise interest rates in a clear fact, and the inflation conditions between $ 2,000 in gold rose forces.At the same time, Argentina's inflation accumulated 104%for 12 consecutive months will be the cause of gold push. Although more emerging markets or developing countries are far lower than that of European countries, compared to their macroeconomic cycle rhythm, they are still highUnder the state of inflation, the personality from South Korea and Japan is particularly obvious. In some Southeast Asian countries, inflation levels to suppress consumption and even drag economic growth have emerged.
The second is that the overestimation of the depreciation of the US dollar is the inevitability of the golden logic.
Since the beginning of the year, the international gold trend has changed its relatively low-time US $ 1600-1700 trend last year. The price has risen to $ 2,000 after $ 1800-1900.The current market focuses on the third conference of the Federal Reserve this year, that is, May 2-3, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike decision, and the US dollar depreciation is more prominent.Recently, the US dollar has not appreciated and the depreciation situation is obvious. In particular, in order to protect the Fed's interest rate hike planning strategy, the depth and speed of the depreciation and speed of the US dollar will exist.Under the benchmark, the depreciation of the US dollar is the natural correlation factor of the logic of gold rising.It is the US dollar index (101.8384, 0.3402, 0.34%) 102 points and 101-100 points may even bring a gold price to 2060 US dollars.In the future, the depreciation of the US dollar or further strengthened. After all, the US investment bank Goldman Sachs believes that the US dollar is overvalued by 18%. This is the result of the US dollar index level evaluation last June. At present, some large institutions still believe that the depth of the US dollar depreciation will reach 10%, which is high as the US dollar high.The estimation of the discussion is very consistent, which is also the focus of the future gold rising.At 101 points, the price of gold is up to 2,000 US dollars. If the U.S. finger will increase the depreciation of the 100-point mark in the future, the international gold price will jump on a logical benchmark of US $ 2100-2200.Reference chain relationship of value significance.
The third is the cost of panic in the cost of economic prospects.
Because the situation of Russia and Ukraine is difficult to stop, and even further intensify contradictions and expand its impact on impact, the major multilateral institutions have aggravated the world's economic prospects. This is a very important economic promotion factors for international gold prices.In addition, the banks of the United States and Europe have two consecutive storms, especially the plunge in the small bank index in the United States. The violent turbulence of US stocks has continued to rise in international gold.Since mid -March, the volatility of U.S. stocks and Bank of America are panic, and the global panic indicators have risen to form an international gold price rising festival, and the prospect of gold price is expected to reach $ 2,400.At present, the purchasing boom of the main countries is also an important driving force to stimulate the price of gold.With the continued intensification of geopolitical tensions such as Russia and Ukraine, central banks of various countries are re -considered their own reserves and varieties, and more central banks plan to buy gold this year.According to data from the World Gold Association, the number of gold purchased by central banks in various countries increased by 152%to 1136 tons in 2022, the highest level since 1967.Recently, a survey of 83 central banks found that two -thirds of the central banks will increase their holdings in 2023, and the 83 central banks hold $ 7 trillion in foreign exchange assets.Geopolical risks have prompted the demand for gold to rise. At the same time, the rise in gold prices also has the cost of increased the cost of the US dollar to increase the cost of the central bank.In the past year, non -Western countries have also bought gold.According to data from the World Gold Association, the central banks in my country purchased 62 tons of gold in November and December 2022, and for the first time, the total amount of gold reserves increased to more than 2,000 tons.Turkish official gold reserves increased by 148 tons in 2022 to 542 tons.The Middle East and Central Asian countries have also been listed as the active buyer of gold by the association.Countries have gradually realized that because the gold held by Russia is not controlled by any other country, gold is useful without any other reserves.As a result, the price of gold has been close to historical high since the global inflation has risen in 2022.
In summary, it is expected that the rise in gold in the future may be very large. It will be the norm to maintain $ 1,900 or $ 2,000 in a short period of time. Even the gold price in the second half of the year will once again impact the US $ 2100-2200 recorded.Gold is offline or maintained at the bottom of the bottom of about 1,800 US dollars, and further downward space may be limited.
