The London Metal Exchange (LME) non -ferrous metal copper inventory increased to a historical high, and hedge funds increased their efforts to short the non -ferrous metal.
Behind this is that the global manufacturing industry has intensified.Last week, the Baltic Swarm freight freight index (BDI) fell as high as 15.3%in a single week, the largest decline in 4 months.Moreover, the latest data released by the Vietnam Statistics Bureau on Monday (May 29) showed that Vietnam's imports have shrunk by 18.4%in May, and export shrinkage 5.9%, a fourth consecutive month.South Korea ’s exports fell 16.1%year -on -year in 20 days in May this year, all showing that the global manufacturing industry has intensified.
With the continuous weakness of the industrial manufacturing industry, the focus of global policies in the future will shift from confrontation to inflation to promote economic growth.Researchers predict that interest rate cuts are feasible choices, and domestic bond yields are expected to go down further.In terms of investment products, pure debt strategy revenue leads, and the domestic bond market continues to follow the "bull" foundation.
Hedge funds increase to short copper
Last week, the LME color inventory increased rapidly, causing warm attention from hedge funds, and the position of the short -colored metal in betting was significantly increased.Since May, LME March copper prices have fallen by 5.3%month -on -month, and have fallen by more than 10%year -on -year; LME March aluminum prices have fallen by 4.7%month -on -month, and have fallen by more than 20%year -on -year; LME March zinc has fallen by more than 30%since January.
The data released by LME shows that hedge funds
The LME copper is being short, and the investment fund is converted into a net short head position holding copper, the first time since June 2020.Earlier, the bet beta increased after mid -April. If the price of copper fell below $ 7,700, more selling may occur.
At present, the number of non -ferrous metals such as copper and zinc registered warehouses has risen significantly.At present, the copper warehouse reaches 96,000 tons, which is 20.03%upper than the minimum value in mid -April.Only 300 tons indicate that the spot demand is extremely weak.
In addition, the zinc inventory in the LME registered warehouse has risen more than 380%since February, and currently reached 75,000 tons, the highest level in 8 months, and the international zinc price has fallen to the lowest since July 2020, and futures futuresThe price also enters the sticker stage.
In this regard, the research of the international investment bank Grand Sect has lowered the estimated level of the price of industrial non -ferrous metals in 2023.Among them, the estimated aluminum price is estimated to be reduced from the previous ton of $ 2,700 to $ 2431; the estimated copper price is estimated to be reduced from $ 9750 per ton to $ 8,689.
The BDI index fell 15%in a week, and the global manufacturing industry intensified shrinking
What has greatly increased the color metal inventory with the international market, the demand for the international bulk cargo ship market is sluggish.Essence
Last Friday (May 26), the BDI index fell 43 to 1172, a daily decrease of 3.5%, and a weekly decrease of 15.3%, the largest decline since the week of January 20.
Among them, it is usually used to transport 150,000 tons of cargo (such as iron ore and coal) Baltic Sea Holy Hope Corner Slutar Ship freight vessels (BCI) falling at 75 to 1683, a daily decrease of 4.3%, a weekly decline of about 20%, continuously the second consecutive consecutive wayThe two weeks fell; the average daily profit of the Hope Hope fell at $ 621 to $ 13,956.
In addition, the trade of the international market export -oriented economy has continued to shrink.According to the latest data released by the Vietnam Statistics Bureau on Monday (May 29), Vietnam's imports have shrunk 18.4%in May, and export shrinkage 5.9%, a fourth consecutive month.In the first five months of this year, Vietnam's exports have fallen by 11.6%, and imports shrink 17.9%.Earlier, preliminary statistics released by the South Korean Customs Office on May 22, South Korea fell 16.1%year -on -year 20 days before May this year.Since October last year, the monthly export volume of South Korea has declined for more than 7 consecutive months.
Global manufacturing has generally appeared weakly.At present, the PPI index of China's domestic market has also continued to decline.In the U.S,
In May, Markit's manufacturing PMI recorded 48.5, and the shrinking interval was hit, hitting a new low in 3 months.
Global stable growth will become a new theme, and pure debt strategy products are popular
With the sharp shrinkage of trade -oriented countries' import and export trade, Asia has been identified by the market as a region that will take the lead, the focus of global policies in the future will shift from anti -inflation to promoting economic growth.
In order to stimulate economic growth, the Bank of Vietnam announced in March of this year that the interest rate cut was 100 points, which reduced the discount rate from 4.5%to 3.5%.Support economic growth.Nomura Securities predicts that South Korea and India will start interest rates at the earliest in August and October of this year.
Lai Lihui, manager of the Gast China Anyi Fund, believes that domestic inflation continues to weaken, production is recovered before consumption, and short -term shrinkage risks are greater.The price of commodities in the country is already low year -on -year. PPI needs two conditions: real estate is invested, or exports continue to be positive.March is fulfilled, and there will still be the possibility of "reduction" and "interest rate cuts" in the future.According to statistics from Choice Financial terminals, as of May 26, the average monthly repurchase interest rate (R007) average from 2.3%at the end of April to 2.0%, promoting the "steep" trend of interest rate curves.Obviously, with the further increase in demand for steady growth, the yield of domestic bonds may further decline.
In the context of weak economic recovery, the fund product income of pure debt strategies is prominent and welcomed by the market.Data show that the Wande Mid -term Pure Debt Fund Index and the Wan De Short Pure Debt Fund Index have continued to rise, and it has reached a record high.As the relevant index continues to rise, the net value of many bond funds has reached a new high.At present, the average yield rate of pure debt funds (including short -term pure debt, medium and long -term pure debt, first -level debt -based base) has reached 1.70%this year, and 99%have obtained positive income within 99%. Last week, more than 1,000 were calculated.) The net worth is innovative.
