Australia's core inflation was eased in the first three months of 2023, which provided support for the Fed's Federal Reserve's expected and suspending interest rate hikes for the steady decline in prices.According to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday, the average CPI growth rate of inflation indicators favored by the Australian Federal Reserve slowed down to 6.6%in the first quarter, lower than 6.9%in the fourth quarter of last year and 6.7%expected by economists.
This data has increased traders' bets that will continue to suspend interest rate hikes for the Fed of the Australian Fed next week. Slayer contracts show that the Fed in Australia will maintain interest rates on May 2nd.The probability before the data was released was 75%.After the data was announced, the Australian dollar (0.6612, -0.0015, -0.23%) fell, and the 3 -year Treasury bond yield of three -year Treasury bonds was also lower.
It can be seen from this report that inflation is reaction to the Fed of Australia ten consecutive times in a row, highlighting the currency market's betting on the Fed's upcoming tightening policy.The Fed in Australia has maintained interest rates at 3.6%this month to evaluate the impact of 350 basis points so far.
The report also shows that the overall CPI rose 7%year -on -year, lower than 7.8%of the same period last year, ending the accelerated price pressure for five consecutive quarters.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that the most important factor in the slowdown in the growth of the first quarter was furniture, household appliances, clothing and fuel.The main factors to promote overall inflation are the price of new housing rose 12.7%, domestic vacation tourism and accommodation prices rose 25%, and power prices rose 15.5%.
At present, Australia's inflation trajectory is similar to economies such as the United States and New Zealand. The rise in prices in the United States and New Zealand has slowed in March.At present, the market is generally expected that the Fed will raise interest rates at the upcoming May 2-3 meeting of May 2-3, but some officials said they hope to suspend interest rate hikes at some time.
However, economists predict that the Australian Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and the final interest rate will reach 3.85%, and it is believed that the inflation rate will remain high, which will cause the Australian Federal Reserve to end the tightening cycle.
Bloomberg
EConomics's James
"To achieve this goal, the price needs to be further cooled." He expects that inflation will return to the midpoint of the 2%-3%target range in Australia next year.
