The Bank of Japan's policy meeting held this week will not adjust the YCC policy, but in the future, the bank will gradually abolish YCC in two steps.In a public stimulus policy, the abolition of YCC is the priority option of the Bank of Japan, and then it is the abolition of negative interest rate policies and withdrawing from the purchase of ETF.
The Bank of Japan will hold a meeting meeting during April 27-28, and will announce the results of the discussion meeting at about 11 am Beijing time on Friday, April 28.Because this is the first policy meeting after the New Central Bank Governor Shi Tian and the male have been appointed earlier this month. The market attention is very high, especially paying attention to how the Bank of Japan will withdraw from the current loose policy.
At the April meeting, the probability of the Bank of Japan's policy of adjusting the yield curve control (YCC) policy under the leadership of Tomita was very low.Shimoda will mainly be procolded by the information, and the new leadership team will still reduce the YCC policy at least in the early stage of office.It is expected that the Bank of Japan can really start adjusting the YCC policy until the June meeting.It is important that investors need to look for clues about the expected expectations of the YCC policy adjustment of the YCC policy under this meeting at this meeting.
However, at this meeting, the Bank of Japan may adjust monetary policies related to epidemic conditions, although these policies are irrelevant.
In terms of how to withdraw from the YCC policy, it is expected that the Bank of Japan will choose to withdraw from this policy in two steps. The basic assumption is that the Bank of Japan will first convert the term of target bonds from 10 -year bonds to 5 years by introducing new forward -looking guidance to 5 years.Bonds, and then completely abolished YCC.In addition, any new YCC adjustment framework launched by the Bank of Japan will have greater flexibility in terms of yield fluctuation.
In terms of withdrawal of negative interest rate policies, the Bank of Japan is expected to give priority to adjusting the YCC policy rather than urgently adjusting interest rate policies.President Shishida will seek to withdraw from YCC on the grounds of restoring market functions, and then return to the original framework that controls only short -term interest rates.The Bank of Japan will then wait for the 2%inflation target, and then end its negative interest rate policy.
After the final abolition of the negative interest rate policy, it is expected that the Bank of Japan will simplify the current three -layer reserve system into a two -layer reserve system.By retaining the layered system, the Bank of Japan plans to activate the currency market function by promoting arbitrage transactions.The Bank of Japan may combine the basic balance with the macro additional balance, applying a unified interest rate of 0.1%of it, and applying zero interest rates to the current policy interest rate.In this case, the market interest rate will remain between 0%and 0.1%.
There are many options for the Bank of Japan to withdraw from how the Bank of Japan will withdraw from the purchase of ETFs.The first option is to transfer ETF to financial institutions that will continue to hold them and use their dividends for public interest; the second option is to use the unrealized income of ETF, which mainly sells stocks to retail investors. At the same time, it provides short -term and long -term long -termexcitation.
At present, the market generally believes that the first policy meeting after Ishida took office in the Bank of Japan in April will focus on stability. Regarding the adjustment of the YCC policy, the market is expected to pay attention to whether Japan's core inflation will be maintained at 2More than 2%, if it is still above 2%, the YCC policy may be greatly adjusted or even given up directly in the second half of this year.
Based on the gradual increase in inflation pressure in the past two months, some analysts said that the central bank may continue to repair the core inflation expectations at this meeting.The core inflation rate of about%and at the end of March 2025 is raised from 1.8%to nearly 2%. In addition, this meeting will also announce the first core inflation forecast at the end of March 2026, or between 1.5 ~ 2.0%.
